We had been led to expect a raft of new Apple Mac computers, including a Mac mini, updated MacBook Pro laptops and a new Apple Silicon Mac Pro, but it seems that we won’t see them until some time next year. We investigate.
As we reported in our article Apple October New Product Event Unlikely To Go Ahead even though Apple was unlikely to announce new Macs, iPads, macOS or iPadOS at an October Apple event, it seemed that all these new products would be announced through a series of press announcements.
We saw this come to pass with announcements of a new iPad and an IPad Pro as well as the new macOS Ventura and iPadOS. Whilst it had seemed that Apple was planning to release the new 14 and 16 inch M2 powered MacBook Pros sometime this autumn, it now appears that the company’s internal plans have had to change, which have been confirmed by a number of announcements.
First off, during Apple’s quarterly earnings call on Thursday, October 27th 2022, Apple reported new company records with $394.3 billion in sales and $99.8 billion in net income, up from $365.8 billion in sales and $94.7 billion in net income for 2021. Apple’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook went on to say…
"This quarter's results reflect Apple's commitment to our customers, to the pursuit of innovation, and to leaving the world better than we found it. As we head into the holiday season with our most powerful lineup ever, we are leading with our values in every action we take and every decision we make."
This reference to the product plans being set ahead of the holiday season, referring to the Christmas and new year break, is the first indication that there will be no new product launches this year.
Later in the same quarterly earnings call, Luca Maestri, Apple’s chief financial officer, offered an even stronger confirmation. He said that Apple’s holiday quarter, which ends on December 31st 2022, would see revenue growth decelerate compared with the previous period, in part because there will be no major MacBook Pro launch in 2022, unlike in 2021. He went on…
“We have a very challenging compare against last year, which had the benefit of the launch and associated channel fill of our newly redesigned MacBook Pro with M1. Therefore, we expect Mac revenue to decline substantially year over year during the December quarter.”
So what is the latest on all the new Mac computers as over the past few weeks, a number of developments have come to light?
MacBook Pro 14 And 16-inch With M2 Pro And M2 Max Chips
Back in June, we learned that Apple had been testing a 14-inch MacBook Pro with M2 Pro and M2 Max chips codenamed J414. It was suggested that the M2 Max chip is expected to have 12 CPU cores and 38 graphics cores, up from 10 CPU cores and 32 graphics cores in the current model, with up to 64 GB of unified memory. Similarly, they have been testing a 16-inch MacBook Pro with M2 Pro, and M2 Max chips codenamed J416, with the M2 Max expected to have the same specifications as the 14-inch MacBook Pro version, and it is now considered that these MacBook Pro computers will get a simple upgrade, no redesign of additional features.
In a recent edition of his Power On newsletter, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported…
“I’m told that the new iPad software update and the first version of macOS Ventura add support for the latest iPad Pro models and the next versions of the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro. The high-end laptops will get the first M2 Pro and M2 Max chips, more powerful versions of the standard M2. Changes to the laptops will be otherwise minimal.”
It is also being suggested by Mac Rumors that the new M2-powered MacBook Pro laptops could have faster RAM…
“The current 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models are equipped with LPDDR5 RAM from Samsung, with the M1 Pro chip providing up to 200 GB/s of memory bandwidth and the M1 Max chip topping out at 400 GB/s. On a speculative basis, it is possible that the next MacBook Pro models could be equipped with Samsung's latest LPDDR5X RAM for up to 33% increased memory bandwidth with up to 20% less power consumption. This would result in up to 300 GB/s memory bandwidth for the M2 Pro and up to 600 GB/s for the M2 Max.”
As to when we might see the new M2-powered MacBook Pro laptops, Mark Gurman had this to say in his October 30th Power On newsletter…
“I’m told that Apple is aiming to introduce the upgraded models—including M2-based versions of the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros—in the first quarter of calendar 2023 and has tied the launches to the upcoming macOS Ventura 13.3 and iOS 16.3. Those software updates are expected to debut between early February and the beginning of March.
Apple has rarely launched new products in January or February during recent years, so I’d expect the new Macs to be announced by the first half of March. That aligns with the planned ship dates for the corresponding software, but also makes sense in light of Apple’s recent history of launching new Macs during that month, including the Mac Studio this year.“
So there we have it, the new MacBook Pro laptops are tied to the 13.3 version of macOS Ventura, and that looks like March 2023 at the earliest.
Mac Mini with M2 And M2 Pro Chips
Interestingly, the high-end Mac mini model is still the Space Gray model with an Intel processor from 2018, currently making it and the Mac Pro range the only Apple Mac computers still powered by Intel chips.
Although Apple chose not to announce an M2 Mac mini at the same time as the M2 MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro this year, we expect Apple to announce new M2-powered Mac minis at the October Event.
Back in June 2022, we learned that Apple had been testing a Mac mini with an M2 chip codenamed J473, with the same specifications as the M2 MacBook Air, which was aimed at replacing the M1 Mac mini.
However, since then, it is now expected to be a simple upgrade of the current M1 Mac mini rather than the redesign that has been suggested in the past by sources such as Jon Prosser.
Back in March 2022, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo tweeted, “I think the new Mac mini in 2023 will likely remain the same form factor design.”
Then in July, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman was interviewed by YouTuber Vadim Yuriev, in which Mark said of the new M2 Mac mini…
“I don’t think there’ll be a redesign to the Mac mini. I actually don’t know where the rumors of a redesign came from. I think those are also going to be spec bumps. If you look at the Mac Studio, it looks like a double-height Mac mini.”
Earlier in October 2022, in his Power On newsletter, Mark Gurman has this to say about the M2 Mac mini…
“Apple is working on an M2 version of the Mac mini, which will be the first update to the company’s smallest Mac in two years.”
In his last Power On newsletter of October 2022, Mark Gurman said this. regarding a new Mac mini…
“A new Mac mini remains in development, and the company continues to test versions with the same M2 chip as the 13-inch MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, as well as an M2 Pro chip, which hikes the CPU and graphics counts. If Apple indeed launches the M2 Pro variation, we can expect the company to probably wind down the still-available Intel model.”
Note that, yet again Mark says nothing about the time scale for the release of the M2 Mac mini, but we believe it is unlikely that a new Mac mini will be released before March 2023.
Mac Pro With M2 Ultra And M2 Extreme Chips
At the Mac Studio launch event back in March 2022, Apple made it clear that the Studio was not a Mac Pro replacement. Apple senior vice president of Hardware Engineering John Ternus went as far as confirming that a Mac Pro is coming "another day" to clear up any confusion about the future of the Mac Pro product line.
Interestingly, Mark Gurman revealed a tidbit about the Mac Pro development in his interview on YouTube with Vadim Yuriev, saying…
“They also had an M1 Mac Pro ready to go months ago. But they scrapped that to wait for the M2 version.”
In June 2022, we learned that Apple has been testing a Mac Pro, codenamed J180. This machine is expected to include a successor to the M1 Ultra chip used in the Mac Studio computer.
The Apple Silicon-powered Mac Pro is also expected to offer the option of the M2 Extreme, which is expected to be two M1 Ultra chips combined, just like the M1 Ultra is two M1 Max chips put together. Using the M2 Extreme would offer a beast of a machine with the following spec…
40-core CPU (32 performance cores and 8 efficiency cores)
Up to 128-core GPU
Up to 64-core Neural Engine
Up to 256GB of RAM
1,600GBps memory bandwidth
When it comes to design, it is being suggested that the new Mac Pro will only see a few design changes, with the main change being getting rid of the current Intel Xeon chips as part of its plan to make the entire range of Mac computers powered by Apple silicon.
In the WWDC 2020 keynote address, Apple said that the Apple silicon transition would take two years. However, with the passing of WWDC 2022 in June, it’s now more than two years since Apple announced the transition from Intel to its own chips. Even if we start the clock from the point that the first Apple Silicon Macs were announced in October 2020, it’s still more than 2 years from that point.
Even though Apple teased a new Mac Pro at the Peek Performance event in March 2022, the current Mac Pro is still running on Intel chips.
As to when to expect the new Apple silicon-powered Mac Pro, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo tweeted that a new Mac Pro would ship in 2023.
However, Mark Gurman had a slightly different take on this. In his interview with YouTuber Vadim Yuriev, Mark said that he thinks the Apple silicon-powered Mac Pro will ultimately be announced at the end of the year and then released in 2023.
In his October 23rd Power On Newsletter, Mark said this about the new Apple Silicon Mac Pro…
“Onto the Mac Pro. That new high-end machine will include chip options that are at least twice or four times as powerful as the M2 Max. Let’s call those chips the M2 Ultra and the M2 Extreme. My belief is that the Mac Pro will be offered with options for 24 and 48 CPU cores and 76 and 152 graphics cores—along with up to 256 gigabytes of memory.
In fact, I can share one configuration of the Mac Pro in active testing within Apple: 24 CPU cores (16 performance and 8 efficiency cores), 76 graphics cores and 192 gigabytes of memory. That particular machine is running macOS Ventura 13.3.“
This also ties the new Mac Pro to v13.3 of macOS Ventura, just like the new MacBook Pro updates. Now, one week later, in his October 30th edition of his Power On newsletter Mark Gurman had this to say about the only Mac that is yet to see an Apple Silicon version, the Mac Pro…
“The first Apple Silicon Mac Pro is clearly running behind the company’s own self-imposed timeline. When it announced the transition to homegrown chips in 2020, Apple said the move would take about two years. The revamped Mac Pro, coming next year, will clearly miss that schedule.
But I think we have a pretty clear reason why, and it’s not a bad thing: The machine will be superior to what Apple originally intended to offer.
As I wrote recently, my belief is that the first non-Intel Mac Pro will have options for 24 and 48 CPU cores and 76 and 152 graphics cores—along with up to 256 gigabytes of memory.”
5nm Or 3nm chips - Why Does It Matter
In fact, Mark Gurman suggests the reason why Apple might be delaying the release of the latest round on M2-powered Macs, and that has to do with how the chips are designed and manufactured and how that has an impact on their performance. let us explain…
In a paywalled preview of a report in DigiTimes, a daily newspaper for semiconductor, electronics, computer and communications industries in Taiwan and the Greater China region, they said…
“Backend firms are upbeat about demand for the upcoming MacBook chips, which will be built using TSMC's 3nm process technology, with production set to kick off later this year, according to industry sources”.
However, according to DigiTimes, it is not expected that TSMC will generate substantial revenue from 3nm chip production overall until at least the first quarter of 2023.
This is further reinforced by a report in a recent edition of Taiwan's Commercial Times, which said TSMC would begin production of 3nm chips for Apple by the end of 2022. That report claimed that Apple's first 3nm chip may be the M2 Pro chip for Macs.
All of this is being suggested will be too late for the M2 Pro and M2 Max powered MacBook Pro machines. Analyst Ming-chi Kuo, from TF International Securities, a financial services group in the Asia-Pacific region, gathers intelligence from his contacts in Apple's Asian supply chain, translating the information he gleans into research notes that often provide a solid look at Apple's future plans, and while he is not always correct, he is one of the most reliable sources for Apple rumours. Ming-Chi Kuo tweeted…
“New 14" and 16" MacBook Pro with new processors will enter mass production in 4Q22. Given TSMC's guidance that the 3nm will contribute revenue starting in 1H23, processors of 14" and 16" MacBook Pro models may still adopt the 5nm advanced node”
The announcement of new MacBook Pro laptops is strengthened by the fact that by a report published by DigiTimes, that suppliers within Apple's Mac supply chain are preparing for shipments of upcoming MacBook Pros by slowing down production on existing Macs.
Why Does This Matter?
Simply put, chips manufactured using a 3nm process versus those produced using a 5nm process will use less power and run faster. For example, Samsung say…
“Compared to the 5nm process, the first-generation 3nm process can reduce power consumption by up to 45%, improve performance by 23% and reduce the area by 16% compared to 5nm.”
It All Could Be Worth Waiting For
In his October 30th Power On newsletter, Mark Gurman said…
“At some point [Apple] made the decision to hold off until versions of the M2 with more CPU and graphics cores are available.
That seems like the right decision. The core M1 architecture is based on the A14 chip from 2020, while the basis of the M2 is quite a bit newer. Apple also may be waiting until it can build chips using the 3-nanometer process (the first M2 chips and the M1 are based on 5-nanometer technology). So it’s probably worth the wait.”
All of which may mean that the versions of Mac computers released from March 2023, with M2 Pro, Max, Ultra and Extreme chips, might well also have the faster 3nm chips in them, making the wait more worthwhile than ever.